Eela Kapilla: Will Your Grandchildren Be Jews?

"Will
Your Grandchildren Be Jews?"

REVISTED 10 YEARS
LATER

By:

Antony

Gordon
and Richard Horowitz[1]

		Sample Population Count (Jewish growth rate)
	Average Number of Children Per Woman (NAJDB based on NJPS 2000)	Intermarriage Rate (NJPS 2000)	First Generation	Second Generation	Third Generation	Fourth Generation
Hasidic / Yeshiva Orthodox ^	6.72**	6%*	100	324	1,050	3,401
Centrist Orthodox ^	3.39**	6%*	100	163	266	434
Conservative	1.74	32%	100	66	44	29
Reform	1.36	46%	100	46	21	10
Secular	1.29	49%	100	41	17	7

CLICK
HERE TO SEE THE NEW CHART (see
chart to view explanation of *, **, ^)

In
the Fall of 1996, the Jewish Spectator
[2] published
our analysis of the data collected during the National Jewish
Population Survey (“NJPS”) of 1990. In October
1996, Moment magazine
[3] published
the chart (“the Demographic Chart”) which captured the text of
our research with a graphic illustration.

Within
only a few years after the Moment debut, the Demographic
Chart (and the essence of our analysis culminating in our findings)
had been translated into seven languages and had appeared in
numerous publications including The New York Times
[4] and
The
Vanishing American Jew by Professor Alan M. Dershowitz.
[5] The
Demographic Chart has been publicly cited by many notable Jewish
personalities including, but not limited to the former Chief Rabbi
of Israel, Rabbi Israel Meir Lau, former Chief Rabbi of England,
Lord Immanuel Jacobovitz, Senator Joseph Lieberman and former Prime
Minister of Israel Bibi Netanyahu.

It
became clear that the main reasons for the multiple appearances of
our analysis as well as the high profile that it developed, was the
powerful impact of the Demographic Chart which we have now,
almost a decade after its first appearance, revisited in this
article.

For
the sake of clarity and to appreciate how the Jewish demographic
landscape has evolved over the past decade, we have utilized a
similar format in this article to its namesake published after the
culmination of the NJPS 1990.

EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY

With
all the controversy surrounding the announcement of the result of
the NJPS
2000 - 2001 (hereinafter referred to as the NJPS 2000), the
bottom line consensus from a non-denominational perspective is aptly
captured by Michael Steinhardt:

“…
All would agree that Jews in America are demographically endangered.
In addition to the usual suspects of assimilation and intermarriage,
the survey revealed that Jews in America are getting married later
and having fewer children - so few that we are experiencing negative
population growth … When we remove the Orthodox from the
statistical equation, the picture becomes that much bleaker for
those American Jews who are most at risk. In the wake of the
study, one would have hoped to find a leadership galvanized to
change. The NJPS (2000), after all, revealed palpable evidence
of a crisis. But the community largely ignored the bad news,
justifying its complacency by disputing the study’s methodology
…” [6]

Mr.
Steinhardt’s summation is correct.

Based
upon the data and the various population studies that are now
available, it appears that an extraordinary disintegration of the
American Jewish community is in process. There was a time when every
Jew could take it for granted that he or she would have Jewish
grandchildren with whom to share Seders, Sabbath and other Jewish
moments. However, the clear data indicates that this expectation is
no longer well founded. Indeed, our studies show that within a short
period of time the entire complexion of the American Jewish
community will be altered inexorably.

As
was the case with the NJPS 1990, the NJPS 2000 targeted four key
quantifiable elements of Jewish survival: marriage rates,
intermarriage rates, birth rates, and levels of Jewish education.
When all of these factors are tabulated and correlated, a troubling
picture emerges of the future of American Jewry. Skyrocketing
intermarriage rates, declining birth rates, and inadequate Jewish
education continue to decimate the American Jewish people.

METHODOLOGY

The
information presented here is drawn from the findings of the United
Jewish Communities (formerly the Council of Jewish Federations)
National Jewish Population Survey (NJPS)
of 2000; the American
Jewish Identification Survey (2001), a replica study of the 1990
NJPS; numerous data runs from the North American Jewish Data Bank
(“NAJDB”) a plethora of articles based on the NJPS 2000 and
several conference calls with leading academicians and demographers
closely involved with the NJPS 2000.

The
intermarriage rate for the various denominations was
obtained from the North American Jewish Data Bank from data
extrapolated from the NJPS 2000. In order to obtain a sufficient
number of cases for the data to be statistically significant, the
age cohort from 18 to 39 were used for all the denominations. As for
average number of children per women, the information
was also obtained from the NAJDB for all denominations.
Since the NJPS 2000 did not differentiate between Centrist Orthodox
and Yeshiva and Chasidic Orthodox, the data for this sub-category
was obtained from the seminal study coordinated by Dr. Marvin Schick
[7] (hereinafter
referred to as “the Schick Study”).

The
Schick Study seemed to indicate a significant (but not huge)
undercount of Orthodox family size in the NJPS 2000.
Nevertheless, we have essentially conservatively used the NJPS 2000
for the assumptions made in the attached Demographic Chart.

DISCUSSION

How Many Jews Are There in America?

According
to the NJPS 2000, 5.2 million people in America today constitute the
core Jewish population. Of these, approximately one million persons
classified themselves as having been born Jewish, but having no
identification with any religious group; 185,000 identified
themselves as Jews by Choice, i.e., converts. (For the purpose of
this article, all Jews by Choice have been considered Jewish,
regardless of the denomination recognizing the conversion.) Thus,
affiliated Jews numbered approximately 4.2 million in 2000, and
constituted about four-fifths of all identified Jews.

Intermarriage Rates and the Dwindling Jewish Population

The
NJPS 2000 found that 47% of Jews who married in the past five years
had wed non-Jews, up from a readjusted intermarriage figure of
43% a decade ago. The rate of intermarriage has risen
dramatically in the past 30 years, from an average of 9% before 1965
to 52% in 1990.

The
1990 NJPS indicated that Secular, Reform and Conservative Jews are
far more likely to intermarry than Orthodox Jews. Secular Jews have
doubled their intermarriage rate, while Reform and Conservative Jews
have tripled theirs. Secular Jews in the 18 to 39 year age
group have an intermarriage rate of 72%, while those over age
39 have an intermarriage rate of 35%. Younger Reform Jews now at a
53% rate, compared to a 16% rate for the older group. Among younger
Conservative Jews, the intermarriage rate has increased to 37%,
compared to 10% for those over age 39. Only Orthodox Jews have
reversed this trend: Their intermarriage rate has fallen from
10% among those over 39 to 3% of the 18-39 group today.

The
unadjusted intermarriage rate actually increased in the 18 to 39
year age group between NJPS 1990 and NJPS 2000. This research
study as well as the Demographic Chart conservatively utilizes the
47% figure.

Jewish
women between the ages of 60-69 have had an average of 2.12
children, whether they were Orthodox, Conservative, Reform or
secular. However, among women aged 40 to 49, there is a drastic
inter-denominational difference in estimated completed family size.
Among those who married, estimated final birth rates have dropped an
average of 32% among Conservative, Reform, and secular Jews, who now
have a little over 1.45 children per family. At the same time, the
estimated final birth rate among the Orthodox aged 40-49 has
increased 106% to 4.4 children today. The independent research
report done by Professor Alvin I. Schiff and Professor Marelyn
Schneider
[8] concluded
that the actual increase was 167% to 5.7 children. For
purposes of this research study and the Demographic Chart, we have
once again utilized conservatively low numbers just as
conservatively low numbers were utilized in our first research
article published almost ten years ago. Those numbers are
consistent with NJPS 2000.

The
NJPS 1990 found that mixed married households contained 770,000
children less than 18 years of age. According to the NJPS 1990, only
28% of these children were being raised as Jews; 41% were being
raised in another religion; and 31% were being raised with no
religion at all. Moreover, while 28% of children of
intermarriage are being raised as Jews, only between 10% to 15% of
this entire group ultimately marries Jews themselves. Thus, it is
clear that nearly all the children of intermarriage are lost to the
Jewish people.

With
respect to mixed marriage households, the NJPS 2000 appears to be
consistent with the findings of NJPS 1990.

The Connection between Intermarriage, Orthodox Observance and Jewish
Education

Just
as the decision to intermarry is the product of countless previous
decisions about how to live one's life, so too the decision not
to intermarry seems to be the product of a lifetime of Jewish living
and learning. The research indicates that a stronger commitment to a
higher level of Jewish education and observance leads to a lower
likelihood of intermarriage and assimilation. The combination of
Jewish commitment and having experienced a complete K-12 Orthodox
Jewish Day School education results in an intermarriage rate of not
greater than 3%. All the research indicates that it is essentially
the Orthodox who are committed to such a complete Day School
education.

The
longer children are in Orthodox Day School, the fewer parents are
likely to face the "Guess who's coming to Seder?” issue.
Almost all Orthodox families today give their children the greatest
number of years of Jewish education. This seems to be crucial to
their exceptionally low intermarriage rate. Contemporary Orthodox
children generally have at least twelve years of Jewish Day
School education, while the peak number of years of Jewish education
in the Conservative and Reform movements is generally from four to
eight years of Hebrew School, much of it being part-time.

Intensive
Jewish education impacts adults as well as children. Indeed, the
recent growth in the Orthodox movement has come from five sources:
higher marriage rates, increased family size, low intermarriage
rates, propensity of those raised Orthodox to remain within the
fold, and the influx of baalei tshuvah, or returnees to
Jewish life. During the past thirty years, tens of thousands of
American Jews who were raised in non-observant homes have committed
themselves to an Orthodox lifestyle. Each young adult who
"returns" brings along the likelihood of an entire family
remaining within the Jewish People.

In
summary, the most recent analyses of Jewish population indicate
two distinct trends in American Jewry. During the period
from 1945-2000 -- and particularly from 1960 to 2000 -- the Orthodox
have steadily increased the duration and intensity of their
children's education, their birth rate, and the percentage of those
raised Orthodox and remaining Orthodox. At the same time, their
intermarriage rate has been reduced (see above). Also, for the first
time in American history, significant number of Jews who were not
raised Orthodox are becoming so. During the same period (1960-2000),
intermarriage among other denominations of Judaism has evidenced
different trends. The level of education among Secular, Reform and
Conservative Jews has (with a few notable exceptions), remained
about the same; their birth rate has declined, and their rate of
intermarriage has multiplied. Once a Jew intermarries, he or she as
an individual remains Jewish, of course, but the likelihood of that
person having any Jewish descendants is close to nil (see
Demographic Chart attached).

Long-Range Implications for Today's Jews

As
the Chinese proverb says, "If we don't change our direction, we
will end up where we're headed." Elihu Bergman, Assistant
Director of the Harvard Center for Population Studies, in a
controversial yet disturbing report, had projected in 1975 that
unless current trends were reversed, the American Jewish community
would decrease by 85% - 98% by the year 2076. This prognosis now
seems to apply to descendants of Secular, Reform and Conservative
Jews. As far as the Orthodox is concerned, the opposite trend has
become apparent. As illustrated in the Demographic Chart, multiple
research studies have come to the same conclusion: Within three
generations there will be almost no trace of young American Jews who
are currently not being raised in Orthodox homes with a complete
Jewish Day School education. Clearly, this is
discomforting news for all of us to whom Jewish survival is of deep
concern. There seems to be no hope that the less traditional
approaches will have the same results as the more intensively
traditional approach.

The Impact of the Jewish Orthodox Day School

The
strongest counter-assimilation effect is exerted by Orthodox Day
Schools; the less time-intensive forms of Jewish education have
almost no effect on intermarriage. Since most Orthodox families now
send their children to Orthodox Day School (usually for at least 12
years), the graduates of today's Orthodox Day Schools will probably
be the forbearers of most of the Jews who will exist in this country
in the future. This prediction is already beginning to come true:
While only 7.8% of Jews aged over 70 are Orthodox, 9.7% of those
aged 30-69 are Orthodox and between the ages of 18-29, the Orthodox
percentage is 19.5%. Furthermore, approximately 27% of all
Jewish children under the age of 18 are being raised in Orthodox
families. It is also interesting to note that according
to the NJPS 2000, although only 46% of US Jews belong to synagogues,
that minority divides up 39% Reform, 33% Conservative, 21% Orthodox
and 7% Other. If synagogue affiliation continues
to be an important “bell weather” of the denominational forecast
for the years ahead, Orthodoxy is capturing a growing market.
More specifically, between the ages of 18-34, 34% of Jewish adults
who are synagogue members have chosen to belong to an Orthodox
synagogue
[9] .

As
stated earlier, long-term Jewish survival depends on four choices
that each individual Jew makes: the level of personal observance;
the choice to marry another Jew; the desire to have two or more
children if possible; and the absolute priority of providing maximal
Jewish education for oneself and one's children. The relationship
among these factors is plain in the data. Choosing Jewish observance
is a result of parents having chosen a Jewish education, which in
turn is likely to lead to choosing a Jewish spouse. Choosing a
Jewish spouse is likely to lead to providing a stronger educational
and ritual base for one's children, who then perpetuate the cycle.

Of
course, it is never too late for any Jew to enter, or re-enter the
cycle of Jewish tradition. During the past 30 years, an enormous
outreach or kiruv movement has developed throughout the
world, offering a variety of programs designed to reach out to
disaffected Jews. Such outreach programs have been launched by all
the major denominations.

Jewish
survival depends on religious observance and education because only
a long-term, intellectually and spiritually challenging process of
Jewish practice and education can provide Jews with the reasons and
the commitment not to marry the attractive, friendly Gentile
in the office or apartment next door.

Potential solutions for Non-Orthodox Jews

These
studies, and their implications, present non-Orthodox Jews with a
dilemma. They may not want to become Torah observant -- but they
don't want their grandchildren drinking eggnog around the Yule log
nor running to prayer at the local Mosque either. What can they do?
Without necessarily completely adopting the Orthodox lifestyle
themselves, they may still be able to identify what the Orthodox are
doing which is successful, and try to apply what they learn.

The
data does not comment on whether Orthodox Jews are better as people,
or as Jews, than anyone else. It does indicate, however, that they
are the one denomination successfully transmitting Jewish tradition.
As a group, the Orthodox is demonstrably succeeding at
passing on the tradition and at inspiring their children to
sustain and perpetuate their own Judaism.

Orthodox
parents and Orthodox Day Schools seem to give their children enough
good reasons for staying Jewish that even when the children are
grown and have the option to intermarry and disappear from Jewish
life, virtually none of them do. Somehow, they reach
adulthood with solid answers to the question of "Why be
Jewish?" Perhaps parents whose children are enrolled in schools
of other denominations might analyze why their children's schools
are not doing the same for their charges.

Parents
who are not Orthodox Day School educated -- or who may even already
be intermarried -- may feel uncomfortable at the prospect of
providing their children an Orthodox education. Notwithstanding this
unease, during the last two decades, tens of thousands of parents
ranging from totally unaffiliated on the one hand to an affiliation
to the Conservative denomination on the other, have their children
enrolled in Orthodox Day Schools.

Although
less effective, parents might want to begin by increasing their own
Jewish education by enrolling in a class for adults, and then
sharing with their children what they have learned. Couples for whom
Jewish education is a charged issue can still work together to find
ways to provide more Jewish education and exposure for their
children than they are currently receiving. For those
who find the thought of entering a place of worship an overwhelming
task, or who simply live too far from a Jewish place of study or
prayer, the past ten years has witnessed the birth of a litany of
very user-friendly and voluminous web sites.

After
all the trend lines have been drawn and graphs have been analyzed,
population studies point to a single conclusion: Regardless of their
own personal denominational affiliation, the most important choice
that can be made by anyone who cares about the survival of the
Jewish people is the choice to support increased religious
observance and a full Orthodox Day School education for the maximum
number of children.

CONCLUSION

The
American Jewish community is now at a critical crossroads. There is
finally a dawning recognition that Jewish continuity and survival
cannot be sustained in what has been an American lifestyle devoid of
serious Jewish education and Jewish living. One might have believed
in the 1950's or 1960's that it was sufficient to have minimal
Jewish exposure. Examples of such exposure includes simply to be a
member of a Temple, have Jewish friends, play basketball at the
Jewish Center and live in a generally Jewish neighborhood to ensure
that one's children would be Jewish.

However,
we now have the data and studies to know that children who are left
without an education leading to deep Jewish beliefs and practices
have little chance of having Jewish descendants. This is a critical
moment for every American Jew and Jewish organization. The American
Jewish community needs to radically alter its approach to Jewish
life. The first step toward this change is to understand that the
present approach is incompatible with Jewish survival, and must be
dramatically changed.

[1]
Antony
(Chanan) Gordon is a Sir Abe Bailey Fellow
(1988) and Fulbright Scholar (1989) who graduated
with a Masters in Law from Harvard Law School
(1990). Mr. Gordon was a Senior Vice President at Morgan
Stanley until the beginning of 2001 when he left to launch his
own firm and hedge fund.

Richard M. Horowitz received his MBA from Pepperdine University
in California. Mr. is the President of Management Brokers
Insurance Agency, and Chairman of Dial 800 L.P.
Mr. Horowitz also serves on the Board of Triotech (OTC) as well
as numerous non-profit organizations. (Copyright 2007)

[2]
“Jewish
Spectator,” Fall, 1996 pp 36-38

[3]
“Be
Fruitful Indeed,” October, 1996, p26

[4]

Tuesday, March 3^rd, 1998

[5]
1997,
Published by Little Brown & Co, 1997, page 26

[6]
“Contact”,
Journal of Jewish Life Network, Volume 5, number 3, page 9 by Michael
H. Steinhardt

[7]

January 2000, “A
Census of Jewish Day Schools in the United States”
(Published by the Avi Chai Foundation,)

[8]

Yeshiva University Research Report, July 1994.

[9]

UJC - Presentation of Findings, February 2004, based on the NJPS
2000-1